Have there been any studies on whether regular readers click or or notice ads more or less than one-off readers who come in from links? If the latter are less inured to a site's ads, a metered paywall may result in a smaller than expected drop in ad income. Another consequence would be that sites should instead be charging ad-premiums for NON-subscribers (in cases where no accurate subscriber personal data is available for ad targeting and selling.)
It can also be the case that ad-monetization is inversely proportional to content quality. If a site with poor content can lure views through search engine results, readers will find that the most interesting things on a page are the ads, and so will interact with them more compared to a site where the content holds the reader's attention.
Comment on Why newspaper paywalls are still a bad idea by Mark
Backlink: http://gigaom.com/2011/06/06/why-newspaper-paywalls-are-still-a-bad-idea/#comment-630766
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