Showing posts with label winning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label winning. Show all posts

Friday, May 6, 2011

THE APPLE INVESTOR: Android May Be Winning OS Smartphone Market Share, But Apple Will Take Home 75% Of Mobile App Revenue This Year (AAPL)

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iPhone AppsAAPL Up With Markets 

Employers added 200K jobs for the third straight month, contributing to the biggest corporate hiring spree in 5 years. Markets are responding well, reversing a week-long slide. Shares of AAPL are up over 2 points, in line with the rest of tech. Upcoming catalysts include the WWDC starting June 6; iPad 2 supply stabilization; the iPhone 5 launch this summer / fall; smartphone push into China and emerging markets; iTunes and other cloud initiatives; the continued evolution and adoption of Apple TV; and new platforms such as video, books / publishing and social (Ping). Shares of Apple trade at 11x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (incl. long-term marketable securities).

The Lower Price-Point iPhone Is Coming, It's Just A Matter Of When (Barron's)
Oppenheimer & Co analyst Ittai Kidron took over coverage of Apple with an Outperform rating and a $450 price-target, saying stock is a “core holding in any technology or growth portfolio.” He believes the rumored lower price-point iPhone, is more a question of when, not if, following the footsteps of the iPod which worked its way into lower price tiers. Kidron predicts 73 million iPhones to be shipped this fiscal year ending in September, and 28.5 million iPads.

Apple Anticipated To Take 75% Mobile App Market Share This Year (Boy Genius Report)
According to the latest projections by iSuppli, Apple's App Store may very well claim a much bigger share of the mobile app download market than anyone previously anticipated. Estimates for the Apple App Store this year call for revenue of $2.91 billion, up 63.4% from $1.78 billion year-over-year. Total industry app revenues rose to $2.1 billion last year and is estimated to increase to $3.8 billion in 2011. Meaning Apple will account for approximately three-quarters share of the market.

Apple Moves to Number Two Worldwide Smartphone Manufacturer (GigaOM)
Apple replaced RIM as the second largest worldwide smartphone vendor during the first quarter of 2011, according to IDC. Apple is led only by Nokia, and followed by RIM, Samsung and HTC which round out the top five. Apple’s shipments grew 114% from the previous year, jumping from 8.7 million to 18.7 million handsets. The company now trails world industry leader Nokia by only 5.5 million shipped units. Read more at Business Insider.

News Corp. Might Be Losing Money On The Daily, But Apple Isn't (Electronista)
News Corp’s digital publication, The Daily, which premiered on the iPad in February, hasn’t had too impressive a first quarter. Even though the app was downloaded over 800K times, the publication made a loss of around $10 million. The Daily was the first iOS app to support Apple’s recently introduced in app subscription policy, and can be subscribed to for $0.99 a week. While the iPad may not save the publishing industry, that's still a cool $240K that Apple pocketed for providing the distribution vehicle.

Tablets Now Eating Into Other Devices (Nielsen)
A survey from Nielsen shows tablets cutting into not only desktop and laptop usage, but stealing time from e-readers and dedicated gaming machines as well. The computing load is clearly shifting away from more traditional machines, presenting a significant challenge to hardware makers. The study also shows Apple growing its U.S. tablet share rather than decline amid more than two hundred tablets swarming the market, with 82% of tablet owners buying an iPad.

Is Apple Compromising On Publisher Terms? (Venture Beat)
Hearst, one of the major U.S. magazine and newspaper publishers, will begin implementing iTunes subscriptions in three of its iPad apps starting with the July issues. A Hearst representative is quoted as saying, “Our deal is fundamentally different from any other deal Apple has done with a publisher.” Does that mean a deviation from Apple’s subscription plan (which has been criticized for requiring publishers to give Apple 30%)? Maybe Apple is showing some flexibility.

What's Up Apple's Sleeve Hiring The Inventor Of LucasFilm THX Sound System? (GigaOM)
The big buzz around Silicon Valley is that "sound legend" and venerable cinematic audio innovator Tomlinson Holman has been hired by Apple to help dramatically improve the company's audio-related efforts. Does this mean Apple may be looking into the possibility of creating its own, Apple-branded sound systems? That would be great, because according to Business Insider what they offer right now is marginal.

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THE APPLE INVESTOR: Android May Be Winning OS Smartphone Market Share, But Apple Will Take Home 75% Of Mobile App Revenue This Year (AAPL)


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Thursday, April 28, 2011

THE GOOGLE INVESTOR: Android Winning In The U.S. But Google Getting Beat At Its Own Game In China (GOOG)

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MWC Google Booth Android GuyGOOG Down With Tech 

Stocks are mixed after reports of rising initial jobless claims and a slower GDP growth. Shares of Google are down marginally with the rest of the tech tape, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is slightly up. Upcoming catalysts include continued Android momentum; regaining ground in China and pushing into other emerging markets; updated software, adoption and media partners for Google TV; and progress in other newer initiatives (+1, location-based services, music-service, mapping, gaming, etc.). The stock trades at approximately 12x Enterprise Value / EBIT, inexpensive relative to peers and historical trading levels.

Android Market Share Growth Accelerating At RIM's Expense (Nielsen)
Google's Android operating system rose to 37% U.S. market share compared with 27% for Apple's iPhone through March, according to Nielsen. Nielsen also detected a preferential shift that reflects Android's ascension, which has happened rapidly in the last six months. All of that came from RIM supporters defecting to the platform, as BlackBerry use fell five points to 22%. More evidence that Android is clobbering everyone and Apple is dead in the water according to Henry Blodget at Business Insider.

Baidu Squeezing Out Google Search In China Handset Market (The Next Web)
The general manager of Baidu's wireless unit claims that 80% of Android-based handsets in China will soon have Baidu as default search engine. Baidu more than doubled its profit in the first quarter and forecast stronger-than-expected revenue for the second quarter, betting on strong online advertising demand among China's businesses. Whereas the free and "open" Android platform has been a boon to Google in most places around the globe, in China the story is apparently different. Read more at Business Insider.

Facebook Launches Groupon Killer, Takes On Google Offers As Well (Various via techDygest)
Facebook launched a new local deals service (aptly called "Deals") that allows users to get special offers and discounts directly through the home page as well as email and notifications. Sound familiar? The social networking is taking on Groupon and LivingSocial with offers intended to get people to socialize. After talks broke down surrounding the purchase of Groupon earlier last year, Google launched Google Offers. With Facebook now in the mix, Google's offering will continue to struggle. Read more at Business Insider.

Google Will Continue To Add To The $350 Million Invested In Renewables (Reuters)
Google has not given up on its goal of making renewable energy cheaper than coal for consumers but it is not predicting victory soon, according to Rick Needham, director of green business operations. Google believes it can eventually help reduce the costs of renewables by spurring innovation and by showing other companies that renewables can be a good business opportunity. The company is exploring more opportunities in renewables, including enhanced geothermal.

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THE GOOGLE INVESTOR: Android Winning In The U.S. But Google Getting Beat At Its Own Game In China (GOOG)


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Saturday, December 25, 2010

Why Did Flickr Miss Out On The Mobile Opportunity Instagram Is Winning? (YHOO)

jerry yang head down

Innovator's dilemma, e.g. in order to compete with Twitpic we would have had to be willing to sacrafice our own login system in favor of Twitter's (insecure) one. The Yahoo! Paranoids would have shut us down in a heart beat (See also: http://laughingmeme.org/2009/07/...)


Additionally we fell into the trap of thinking like an incumbent, we spent 6 months off and on talking to Twitter about preferred product placement rather then just shipping the integration we had built.



We also spent *years* debating whether or not to build iPhone apps/iPhone optimized sites or bet on a HTML5/multi-device strategy. And work like the award winning iPhone optimized Flickr mobile site was viewed ambivalently even within the team as it happened largely as a skunk works and was very much hard coded around iPhone's limitations.



Lastly, Marco Boerries was the without a doubt one of the most viciously political, and disliked Yahoo! execs and he reigned for 4 years over the Yahoo "Connected Life" team which had universal control over all native mobile experiences within Yahoo.  Several Flickr internal attempts to build and ship native mobile experiences (going back to 2006) were squashed relentlessly.   The Flickr iPhone app that eventually shipped was built by CL.



That said it's easy to look at the successful products and wonder how **anyone** could have missed something so obvious, but the debate about what the future of mobile photography and photo sharing looked like was a fairly active one. Perhaps less remembered the innovated Radar.net social/mobile photo app/site was very visibly struggling to gain traction throughout this whole time period, and many less interesting attempts never made it to the gate.



Prototypes like Flickr for Busy People (http://flickrforbusypeople.appsp...) and the semi-integrated Photos Nearby (http://www.flickr.com/nearby) both built by Aaron Straup Cope, as well as the afore mentioned iPhone optimized http://m.flickr.com were partially byproducts of those long running internal debates about how to do mobile.



It would actually be incredibly straightforward to build something like an Instagram on top of Flickr using the API, especially if you could convince Flickr to release an API to "Beehive" the friend finder tool, which among other things, benefits from Y! backdoor deal with Facebook.

This post originally appeared as an answer on Quora and is reprinted with permission here. Kellan Elliott-McCrea formerly worked at Flickr and is now a VP of engineering at Etsy.

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Why Did Flickr Miss Out On The Mobile Opportunity Instagram Is Winning? (YHOO)


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Monday, November 1, 2010

THE APPLE INVESTOR: Sorry, Steve, Android's Winning The Market Share Battle Of The Smartphones (AAPL, VZ, RIMM, GOOG)

The Apple Investor is a daily report from SAI. Sign up here to receive it by email.


steve jobs eric schmidt apple googleAAPL Up With Markets 
Americans slowed spending in September to the weakest pace in 3 months as incomes fell by the largest amount in 14 months. Shares of AAPL aren't phased -- trading up close to $4. Upcoming catalysts include monthly NPD data (Mac / iPod business); holiday iPhone and iPad sales updates and carrier expansion; new content revenue streams such as video, books and social (Ping); moving iTunes into the cloud; and the uptake of refreshed Apple TV. AAPL trades at 14x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (incl. long-term marketable securities).  

New MacBook Air To Ship In Highest Volume Ever (AppleInsider)
Apple's new MacBook Air is supposed to ship in highest volume ever for the thin-and-light notebook, according to analyst Mingchi Kuo from Concord Securities. Some 700,000 Macs – out of the 4.1 million estimated to ship in the fall – would be ultraportables. This means 17% of the total number. Furthermore, 420,000 (60%) of them would be represented by the 11-inch model, and the analyst is confident that buyers are inclined to trade speed for size and price. Have any questions about the MacBook Air? Ask Business Insider Dan Frommer.

Asymco: Apple Pulling In 50% Of The Worldwide Cell Phone Profits (Asymco)

Market Intelligence firm Asymco helps investors visualize the effect of Apple's entry on the mobile phone market. Bottom line: Apple is selling iPhones as fast as it can make them, and is raking in huge profits in the process, while everyone else is playing catch up, says Philip Elmer-DeWitt at Fortune. Apple's worldwide cell phone market share in terms of unit sales is 4% while Apple's share of the profits (earnings before interest and taxes) is 50%.

Canalys: Android Commands 44% Market Share Versus Apple's 26% (Fortune)

Watch out Apple. The combined sales of Android handsets give Google's OS a commanding 44% smartphone market share in the third quarter, according to research firm Canalys. Apple did take the lead from Research in Motion's BlackBerry with shipments of 5.5 million iPhones in the U.S. for a 26% market share. However, Google's (GOOG) Android is winning the OS wars, shipping 9.1 million units. Read more from Business Insider here.

NPD: It's True, Android Is Clobbering The iPhone (All Things Digital)

Android is extending its lead as America’s most popular mobile operating system. NPD consumer research group says that Google’s software was installed on 44% of mobile handsets sold in the third quarter, up 11 percentage points since last quarter. Android’s gain seems to be primarily fueled by BlackBerry’s loss: Research in Motion lost 6 points in the last quarter, falling to 22%, while Apple’s iOS moved up one point, to 23%.

In Terms Of Reward For Earnings, Apple Trading In Line With S&P (Seeking Alpha)

If you had invested $100 the S&P 500 in September 2005, you would have $103 now. If you invested $100 in Apple in September 2005, you would have $529 now. However, in terms of reward for earnings, Apple doesn't seem so appealing. Although Apple received a premium valuation to the S&P prior to October 2008, it has traded at a discount or in-line with the S&P since then. Click to see accompanying charts.

Again, The Verizon iPhone Is Coming (But So Is Christmas) (Fortune)
The most talked-about cellphone in America is one that doesn't officially exist: the Verizon iPhone. Analysts estimate that Apple could sell 8 million to 9 million next year, compared with an estimated 22 million iPhones sold-to-date in the U.S. The soon-to-be-unveiled Verizon iPhone is the answer to many consumers' prayers. But a deal with Apple will test the company that Ivan Seidenberg (CEO) has spent his career building.

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