Twitter Predicts How Stocks Move 87.6% Of The Time

When a "Twitter hedge fund" was launched, we saw it as a bubble sign. But there seems to be something there. 

A Cornell University study in the Journal of Computational Sciences used algorithms to track the "mood" of messages on Twitter and found that certain moods on Twitter correlate very nicely with the closing of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

"We find an accuracy of 87.6% in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA and a reduction of the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6%," the study says. 

Don't get your hopes too up, however: as we know, correlation is not causation. While we're skeptical that "mood" on a global social network like Twitter can predict the movements of a specific index like the DJIA, it's certainly possible that some signals on Twitter can correlate with some stocks and other events. It's also the fastest way (probably even faster than a Bloomberg terminal) to track breaking news, which can have an impact on the stock market. 

Dare we say StockTwits has found its business model?

Don't Miss: NSFW: People Really "F---ing" Hate Twitter's New Email Notifications →

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See Also:

• Why Twitter's New Photo Service Is Not The End Of The World For Instagram
• Twitter To Developers: Here's How You'll Be Able To Include Twitter Photos In Your Apps
• Jack Dorsey Says He's Working 16-20 Hours A Day At Square And Twitter

Twitter Predicts How Stocks Move 87.6% Of The Time

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The Best Marketing Move Microsoft Could Make With Windows Phone: CHANGE THE NAME (MSFT)

Windows Phone is a fine mobile platform.

The interface is innovative and gets you in and out of tasks more quickly than the menus and icons that Apple and Android use. Its email app is top-notch.

Its on-screen keyboard is actually better than the iPhone's. (I know this because I've been using a Windows Phone that Microsoft loaned me as my primary phone for the last two weeks -- I make far fewer errors, and when I do, the auto-correct is much better.)

The September update, code-named Mango, will add cool features like app multitasking, a speedy new browser with HTML5 support, voice commands, augmented reality, the ability to identify songs that are playing...and on and on.

There have been a few glitches -- updates aren't getting pushed out as smoothly as they should be, and some obvious features like cut and paste won't be added until Mango. Plus, it needs more apps, but that's to be expected given that it came out more than three years after the iPhone and two years after Android.

But overall, Windows Phone doesn't have a quality problem. It has a perception problem.

And there's one quick and easy way Microsoft can start to fix it.

Stop calling it "Windows Phone."

Windows Phone has nothing to do with the traditional desktop Windows. It doesn't run Windows apps. It requires different hardware (ARM instead of Intel x86 processors). It's based on different technology, all the way down to the kernel.

Windows Phone isn't even a windowing operating system like Windows. (Or the various Mac OSs over the years or the Xerox Alto which started the whole windowing thing.) It uses a system of horizontal and vertical menus with big words filling up the screen. There are no "windows" to collapse and move around, unless you consider an app running on a full screen to be a "window."

Every Windows Phone has a physical start button that mimics the Windows icon, but Microsoft ought to scrap that, too. Nobody cares. Just call it a "home" button and be done with it.

A long time ago when Windows ruled the world, naming other products after it seemed like a good idea. But now that Windows PC sales are declining among consumers, why burden what's supposed to be a future-looking product with a backward-looking name?

There's some precedent for the move, too. Microsoft launched its search engine in 2005, and by 2008 it was pretty good -- its accuracy was better than Google for some results, worse for others, but it wasn't horrible.

But it had a horrible name. Windows Live Search. Then Live Search. Meaningless. Forgettable. No fun.

It wasn't until Microsoft renamed it Bing in 2009 that people started paying attention. Bing versus Google -- that suddenly sounded like a real battle.

Microsoft knows how to come up with catchy names. Bing. Silverlight. Lync (much better than its previous names like Live Communications Server and Office Communications Server). Xbox. Zune. (Which is a tarnished brand because the first version was so much worse than the iPod at the time, but at least it wasn't Windows Human Ear Professional Edition or something.)

For Windows Phone to survive, it has to be a great consumer product. And every great consumer product has a great consumer name.

Here's a suggestion: Mango.

Or better yet, build Skype into the OS and call them Skype phones.

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See Also:

• Here's A Tough Job: "Consumer Demand Generation" For Windows Phone
• Microsoft's Real Windows Phone 7 Problem: Nobody Cares
• Microsoft Opens Windows Phone To Much Better Apps

The Best Marketing Move Microsoft Could Make With Windows Phone: CHANGE THE NAME (MSFT)

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Microsoft Will Help iPhone Developers Move Their Apps To Windows Phone (MSFT, AAPL)

Microsoft has a new weapon in its battle to get more apps for Windows Phone: a tool that will analyze an iPhone app and offer shortcuts for developers to port it to Windows Phone.

Microsoft focused first on a few high-profile consumer apps, talking to companies like Rovio (Angry Birds), Netflix, and Pandora to try and convince them to build on Windows Phone. It also did a lot of outreach at its MIX developer conferences for the last two years.

That approach has gotten Windows Phone up to 15,000 apps -- not bad for a platform that's less than six months old, but still far behind the 350,000 apps in Apple's App Store.

So now, Microsoft is offering iPhone developers a little more help. The iPhone-Windows Phone API Mapping Tool looks at an iPhone app and figures out which iOS APIs it's calling. (An API, or application program interface, is how an application communicates with the underlying operating system and/or hardware.) Then, it maps each of those APIs to an equivalent Windows Phone 7 technique. The tool also offers code samples for developers who aren't familiar with the Microsoft platform.

Right now, the tool only works for three areas: network and Internet, user interface, and data management. But Microsoft eventually plans to add support for areas like audio and video, graphics and animation, security, and performance.

For the latest tech news, visit SAI: Silicon Alley Insider. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

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See Also:

• Mobile Industry Is Turning Attention From RIM To Microsoft
• Microsoft Charges More For Patents To Use Android Than It Does To Use Windows Phone 7
• Everything You Need To Know About How Phones Are Stalking You Everywhere

Microsoft Will Help iPhone Developers Move Their Apps To Windows Phone (MSFT, AAPL)

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Comment on How to Use the Cloud to Move Contacts Between Phones by Eddie

mahjong - that's fine if you kowtow to Google and don't mind what they do with your information (including forthcoming hyperpersonal advertisements - there is no such thing as a "free lunch" after all), but I happen to think Kevin's article was awesome and all about having options! Thanks Kevin (for those of us who are more agnostic and want options)!

Comment on How to Use the Cloud to Move Contacts Between Phones by Eddie

Backlink: http://gigaom.com/mobile/how-to-use-the-cloud-to-move-contacts-between-phones/#comment-615698

Comment on How to Use the Cloud to Move Contacts Between Phones by chris

Agreed with Stuart that I also not seeing any big benefit on the cloud storage. Being the main reason of security issue on cloud, unless people changing phone very often, otherwise i don't feel i will opt for it. Wonder if there any technology to sync the contacts directly between phones using wireless or bluetooth? It make more sense to me.

Comment on How to Use the Cloud to Move Contacts Between Phones by chris

Backlink: http://gigaom.com/mobile/how-to-use-the-cloud-to-move-contacts-between-phones/#comment-615549

Hey Twitter, Zynga: MOVE TO FRANCE

Twitter and Zynga are thinking about moving out of San Francisco because they're about to be socked with a huge tax bill. Ridiculous!

But, one man's mistake is often another man's opportunity. And this is a great opportunity for these two great companies to move to a country notorious for its favorable tax environment... France.

Click here to flip through gorgeous pictures of Paris →

Wait, what?

Yes, taxes in France are pretty high compared to, say, Somalia. But compared to New York and California, it's really not that bad. The US has higher corporate taxes, and if you add state and local taxes, other taxes are not that much lower than France's.

But the most important thing is that, if they play their cards right, startups based in France can get plenty of tax breaks. For example, R&D tax credits let technology companies deduct up to 80% of their R&D spending from their tax bill. Being in the European Union also allows you to move your tax burden around: Google pays very little taxes in France or anywhere else because they shift their burden to their Irish headquarters, where taxes are lower.

Last year, Google announced that they would open an R&D center and a "Cultural Institute" in Paris (right now their Paris office is mostly sales), and the French government hinted, without coming out and saying it, that Google got tax breaks to open this R&D center. We're sure Twitter and Zynga could work out a similar deal for moving their HQs in Paris.

France can be a hard place to start a company, but once you've reached a few hundred employees it gets much, much easier. Just ask innovative, billion dollar French tech companies like Vente Privée and Iliad.

Now, what would Zynga and Twitter get on top of tax breaks if they moved to Paris? Tech startups don't just want tax breaks. They also want to hire the most talented people in the world. And this is where Paris truly shines.

Here's what Paris has going for it:

• Very deep technical talent. French engineering schools are small, which means they don't tend to make a big splash internationally. But the flip side of that is that by staying small, they churn out extremely talented graduates. Admissions to French engineering schools is very competitive, and takes place after two or three years of post-secondary education in preparatory classes where 80 hours a week of study is a minimum. It's no coincidence that you can't swing a cat on a London trading room floor without hitting a French guy. Twitter, these guys will sleep on your server room and come up with crazy-ass hacks to keep you up and running. (Yes, French people can and do work hard.) Paris also has a thriving open source community.
  
  
  
  
• Great designers. Paris and designers practically go together, don't they? It would take too long to cite the amazing designers, in every area, who live and thrive in Paris. Twitter and Zynga are nothing if not design-focused, and indeed the entire "application layer" of the web is moving to a greater focus on design. Tapping Paris's world-class pool of talent would definitely be a competitive advantage.
  
  
  
  
• Lower salaries. Given the lower purchasing power, even with higher (?) payroll taxes, a top engineer or designer still costs less to employ in France than in Silicon Valley.
  
  
  
  
• Gaming talent. This one is for Zynga. Perhaps precisely because of this combination of design and technical talent, France has been a hub for great gaming companies. It's the home of companies like UbiSoft, and Gameloft, arguably the biggest mobile gaming company in the world.
  
  
  
  
• Arbitrage. Even though it's surging, Paris' startup hub is still nowhere near Silicon Valley's, or even New York or London's vibrancy. That seems like a drawback, but it's actually a tremendous arbitrage opportunity. As has been established, Paris has plenty of amazing, cheap talent--and there's much less competition for that talent. Google is much smaller, Facebook has like twelve people, and you don't have hot flavor of the day startups that just raised $10 million with a napkin. Twitter and Zynga are both companies that want to be around 20 years from now, and so they should look at this as a long term investment. When Google opened an engineering office in New York in 2003, plenty of people raised eyebrows. Now it's an amazingly prescient bet that has paid off hugely, both for New York and for Google.
  
  
  
  
• Quality of life. This one needs no explanation.
  
  
  
  

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Hey Twitter, Zynga: MOVE TO FRANCE

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